December 26, 2013

Have you heard about the Benford’s law? Apparently you can predict the first digit when number of statistical data is provided (any kind).

A phenomenological law also called the first digit law, first digit phenomenon, or leading digit phenomenon. Benford’s law states that in listings, tables of statistics, etc., the digit 1 tends to occur with probability ~30%, much greater than the expected 11.1% (i.e., one digit out of 9).

This inspired me to check whether that is also applicable when using files’ sizes as statistical data. I must admit that I’m pretty surprised by the results. Just have a look at the output:

Total samples: 23352
Start directory: /usr
Total time: 2.66 seconds
Digit	Result	Benford	Difference
1	0.3219	0.3010	-0.0209
2	0.1688	0.1761	+0.0073
3	0.1197	0.1249	+0.0052
4	0.0948	0.0969	+0.0021
5	0.0708	0.0792	+0.0084
6	0.0625	0.0669	+0.0045
7	0.0561	0.0580	+0.0019
8	0.0632	0.0512	-0.0121
9	0.0421	0.0458	+0.0036

You can try benford.py script yourself, for example:

$ python benford.py /usr    

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